If you own or manage a building with air conditioning or heat pump systems, you may soon notice higher replacement costs, and the reason may not be equipment age alone. Enacted in 2025, new federal refrigerant regulations began reshaping the HVAC industry, with significant cost and planning implications for property owners.
At Criterium Engineers, we’ve been tracking these changes closely and have begun noting them in the HVAC sections of our building inspection reports. Here’s what you need to know.
Why Refrigerants Are Changing
Refrigerants are the chemicals that allow air conditioners and heat pumps to cool and heat buildings. Regulations involving these chemicals are periodically updated to meet environmental goals. These updates are driven by the need to:
- Reduce damage to the ozone layer
- Lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) from refrigerant leaks during operation and servicing
- Reduce emissions associated with refrigerant manufacturing
The current transition is part of a broader EPA initiative to phase out refrigerants with high GWP, such as R-410A, and replace them with lower-impact alternatives.
A Faster Phase-Out Than in the Past
Most residential and light commercial HVAC systems currently in service use R-410A refrigerant. A smaller number of older systems still rely on R-22, which was phased out in new equipment years ago.
What’s different this time is the speed of the transition:
- New R-410A equipment production ended in January 2025
- Existing R-410A equipment may still be installed from remaining stock, but only through 2028
- Servicing refrigerant supplies will become increasingly limited and expensive
This accelerated timeline will help achieve environmental benefits sooner, but it also creates cost pressures for repairs and replacements as older equipment reaches the end of its service life.
What Replaces R-410A?
The latest generation of residential and light commercial HVAC equipment uses refrigerants such as R-32 or R-454B. These have significantly lower GWP but come with different operating characteristics, including:
- Higher or different operating pressures
- New system design requirements
- Updated safety standards
Because of these differences, the new refrigerants are not compatible with most existing R-410A systems.
Why Replacement Costs Are Increasing
Property owners should expect HVAC replacement costs to rise by approximately 15% to 30% over the next several years. Several factors are driving this increase:
- Whole-System Change-Outs
In many cases, partial replacements will no longer be possible. For example:
- In split systems, replacing just the outdoor compressor will not be an option
- Both the indoor fan coil unit (FCU) and outdoor condenser must be replaced together as a matched system
- New Refrigerant Piping
Existing refrigerant lines often cannot be reused. Differences in chemical properties, pressures, and material compatibility require:
- Brand-new refrigerant piping
- Updated fittings and installation methods
- Package Unit Replacements
For packaged HVAC units, replacing the entire refrigerant circuit can be so extensive that full unit replacement is often the more practical (and sometimes only) solution.
- New Safety Requirements
The new refrigerants fall under a classification known as A2L, meaning they are mildly flammable under certain conditions. This has led to:
- Additional safety features and leak detection requirements
- New installation and code compliance standards
- Specialized technician training
- Market Volatility
During the early years of the transition, equipment availability may be inconsistent, potentially leading to:
- Price fluctuations
- Longer lead times for replacement systems
How Criterium Engineers Can Help
If your HVAC equipment is aging or nearing the end of its expected service life, these changes make planning more important than ever. Waiting for a major failure could result in higher-than-anticipated replacement costs and limited equipment options.
At Criterium Engineers, we evaluate HVAC systems with an eye toward current and emerging codes, standards, and industry trends. We can help you:
- Assess the condition and remaining life of your existing HVAC equipment
- Understand how refrigerant regulations affect future capital costs
- Plan for system replacements before emergency failures occur
Environmental progress often comes with short-term cost adjustments, and refrigerant-based HVAC systems are no exception. Informed planning can help reduce surprises and keep your building operating efficiently and safely.
If you have questions about how these changes may affect your property, Criterium Engineers is here to help.